Why your neighbor's financial aid outcome tells you less than you think.
It starts out as a simple conversation about where your student is applying to school.
“We looked at that school, but our neighbor’s son didn’t get any money there, so we crossed it off the list.”
Here’s the deal: You’re trying to make sense of a process that feels less than transparent, and stories like this one feel more reliable than what you see in the brochure. However, your neighbor’s student tells you almost nothing about what your student might receive.
Merit scholarships aren’t random, but they’re also not universal. They’re built around specific profiles. Think GPA ranges, test scores, intended major, sometimes even geography or extracurricular background. Two students applying to the same school in the same year can receive offers that are $20,000 apart. Same school. Same admit cycle. Completely different financial outcomes
Some schools publish their scholarship data. You may be able to find stats such as average awards, percentage of students receiving scholarships, and even ranges by academic profile. That information is publicly available and more useful than a single neighbor’s experience. Johnny’s offer (or lack of one) reflects his profile meeting that school’s criteria at that moment. It’s an anecdote.
Take the story of Tara. Tara plays the oboe. In a year when the university orchestra has several openings, Tara might receive a substantial scholarship. It’s not because her GPA jumped, but because the school needed her talent playing the oboe in the orchestra. The following year, with those seats filled, the same student might not receive a scholarship. Merit aid reflects what a school needs to build its class in that moment, and that changes every single cycle.
There’s also the question of fit and how you position yourself in the application. Students who apply strategically consistently outperform students who apply the same way to every school. The process is improvable. One neighbor’s result doesn’t account for any of that.
What actually predicts merit aid eligibility
Your student’s GPA relative to the school’s enrolled student profile (not just admitted students)
Test scores (if applicable) compared to the school’s middle 50 percentile range
Intended major (some programs are able to fund more generously)
Whether the school uses merit aid to recruit from your geographic area (especially important for out-of-state schools)
None of those variables show up in a conversation over the back fence.
Instead of “did kids we know get money there?,” the better question is: does my student’s profile sit in the top 25% of this school’s typical enrolled class? If yes, that school almost certainly has scholarship dollars available for students like yours — and the offer is worth finding out.
Crossing schools off based on one family’s experience is one of the quietest ways families limit their options. The school that “didn’t work out” for Johnny might be the school that funds your student’s education most.
If you’re not sure how to read your student’s profile against a school’s data, that’s exactly what my 90-minute strategy session is for.